RUB Currency Pair 2015
The ruble honorably survived the news of new sanctions
After reaching a number of absolute records of devaluation last fall the Russian ruble this year remained stable until recently. There was no evidence of quotation fluctuations of the ruble since the spring. However, it began to fall again, and it has hit multiple year lows in just a few days.
The ruble stabilization has become possible largely thanks to some calm in the commodities market. The Brent oil didn’t fall below 55 dollars per barrel in price until recently. For the Russian currency the stability in the oil market was one of the determining safeguards against devaluation.
As you can see, the chart of Brent oil fell heavily down, which was supposed to trigger a deeper fall of the ruble. The USD / RUB currency pair 2015 grown above the level of 73-74, but this did not happen. The USD / RUB currency pair 2015 closed the trading week at the level of 70.66 rubles per US dollar. Yesterday Brent tried to grow, and amid the strengthening of the energy carry the couple even declined lower than 70.00 to 12-day low of 69.54.
Besides, in a couple of days the demand for ruble can be supported by large exporters due to the peak of tax payments. Next week the ruble is expected to attempt to downwards correction, due to the formation of a reversal head and shoulders pattern on the RSI, which may hint at fall. However, the full correction could be only expected in a case of breaking the trend line, but now the dollar will most likely try to push off from it, and we will see a new attempt to rate growth of the USD / RUB currency pair 2015.
On the other hand, the sharp fluctuations in the end of the year are unlikely. Most investors will probably refrain from large transaction values before the long New Year holidays. The Euro fell by 1.74% to 76.31 of the RUB/EUR.
The further growth to the area near the level of 73 will be expected if the USD/RUB pair breaks the resistance at the level of 71.40. On the other hand, the USD may return to the previous level of 69.3 if oil prices reach a new low. According to this scenario, it may start a correction to the level of 39.40 dollars per barrel.
Speaking about the forecast for oil prices, it must be noticed that all the major financial bubbles of the last three decades were blown away by 80% including the decline in the Japanese stock market in the early nineties, the Internet bubble in the early two thousand, the decline of the US market in 2007-2009.
From this point of view oil now is exactly the same bubble, the prices of which were overstated too high. From 145 dollars per barrel oil should fall below 30. This will be the bottom after the oil bubble finally blown away. Many experts believe that the oil prices decline should break suddenly. Then the gradual decline will be no longer a surprise, but an oil price surge will become a real price shock to the market.