RUB Currency Pair 2016
The Russian ruble will grow by 20% by the end of 2016
By the end of 2015, the combination of financial sanctions and tough situation in commodities market for Russia has crucially complicated the situation for the national assets and currency - ruble.
However, in 2016 oil prices will rise again as demand of the United States and, primarily, China will overtake too pessimistic forecasts, and the growth of oil production in the US will slow down or even stop due to financial problems in the shale industry companies. This is good news for the energy-dependent Russian economy.
Meanwhile, in 2016 the Fed will allow the US economy to become a bit overheated, because a strong dollar will force the regulator to raise rates too slowly. Some of the largest companies in asset management around the world have reduced their position in the Russian currency due to the fact that the quotations of the ruble show the largest volatility in the exchange market of foreign currencies.
Experts of American investment company, which specialized in startups, consider the Russian currency as one of the best prospects to increase the assets of the fund. The ruble fell by almost 37% from maximum values achieved in the past year and this movement, according to the CIO of the fund, is too overly.
Now quotations are expected to grow due to the fact that investors who sold their positions in that currency will begin to look for attractive opportunities for investment as fears of slowing the global economic growth are weakening.
The fund, which has been selling Russian bonds due to the fact that their dynamics has become the worst among such tools in developing countries earlier this year, this month increased position in the ruble, as it believes that the currency became undervalued.
Its experts anticipate that the quotation of ruble in the end of the year will be trading at around 70 in the USD / RUB currency pair 2016. Now it is trading in the area of 70.8-71.3 rubles, every day getting closer and closer to the highs of August and January of 2015.
The main danger is that the currency pair USD / RUB currency pair 2016 approaches the resistance area of 71.5-72 rubles for the third time. In addition, the oscillation amplitude of the last two years took the form of a rising "triangle", that is very similar to a rising "wedge".
The forecast on the dynamics of EUR / RUB currency pair 2016 will be broadly similar to the US dollar. It suggests the approach of US currency to Euro to parity that will be reflected in the similarity of quotation changes against the Russian currency.
The overcoming break of the resistance on the local extremum of 83.61 should be expected in the long term during 2016. We should be ready to the potential incremental growth to levels of 85 and 90 and even to possible testing of 100.
The main driver for the ruble devaluation will become a similar dynamics of oil on international markets. Additionally, the state of Russian economy and industry and the need for sequestering of the budget based on the price of black gold will lead to the depreciation of the national currency.